What could be more Southwest Floridian than looking to the future through a crystal ball on the beach?
Dec. 30, 2024 by David Silverberg
The end of 2024 has come and with it the usual lazy media roundups looking back at the events of the year.
Far more productive and important are looks ahead, although these are necessarily speculative—and they will be coming in these pages. But first, it seems sensible to see how well The Paradise Progressive was able to foresee the events of 2024, one of the most momentous years in American history.
In the past, we’ve graded our projections on an A through F scale. This year, though, we’ll grade some of the key ones as “prophetic” or “pathetic.”
From Part I – A democracy, if you can keep it: Anticipating the year ahead in politics in America
Prophetic: “It will be an interesting year but not a fun one. Indeed, it will be dangerous, stressful and frightening.”
Well, that was certainly true. Not much further explanation is needed there.
Prophetic: “…the outcome of the 2024 presidential election will determine whether America stays a democracy or becomes a dictatorship.”
While this remains to be seen, all indications are that America is heading in a dictatorial direction under Donald Trump.
Prophetic: “Throughout the year expect court rulings to drop like bombs, with Supreme Court rulings making the biggest explosions of all.”
This was certainly the case. In January, in a civil case first brought by writer E. Jean Carroll in 2023, Trump was found liable for sexual abuse and ordered to pay $83.3 million in damages for defamation. On May 30 in the New York falsified business records case, Trump was found guilty of 34 felonies, a verdict that seemed a major blow to his presidential candidacy. However, in a decision announced on July 1 in the case of Trump vs. United States, the Supreme Court granted presidents—i.e., Trump—immunity for “official acts,” a decision that now hands him virtually unchecked power.
Prophetic: “If he wins he becomes dictator, he pardons everyone who committed a crime on his behalf, and he attains absolute, unrestricted power. If he loses, he forfeits his life, his fortune and his own freedom.”
The situation is certainly set up for this prophecy to be fulfilled and the likelihood is that he will evade justice altogether once he takes the presidency.
Pathetic: At the outset of the year, a movie called Civil War, which imagined armed domestic conflict in the United States, was being promoted and threatened to “encourage those thinking of civil war and political violence to actually take up arms and make this fiction real.”
Civil War was released in April and while garnering $126 million at the box office, essentially sank like a stone, making little to no impression across the country. In its 2023 promotions, it was unclear whether the movie’s villain was President Joe Biden or not. Once released, however, the movie posited a revolt against a president who had overstayed his two terms and was clearly Trump. But the movie’s fictional California forces and especially the “Florida coalition,” that took up arms in revolt was wildly off the mark. Overall, this movie didn’t seem to have any impact at all on the election or domestic politics.
Prophetic: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ (R) presidential candidacy would be “do or die” in New Hampshire and “that is likely to fall on the ‘die’ side of the equation.”
Indeed, DeSantis dropped his bid on Jan. 21, just before the New Hampshire primary after falling steadily in the polls.
Prophetic: “The Republicans will be throwing everything they can at Biden, like a baseless impeachment proceeding that is unlikely to go anywhere, and attacking him through his son, Hunter.”
That certainly came to pass. Hunter Biden was found guilty of firearms-related felonies in June and pled guilty to tax charges in September. However, by then his father had dropped out of the race and Hunter’s crimes had no political impact. Ultimately, he was pardoned by his father on Dec. 1.
More relevantly, Republicans in the House of Representatives continued a feeble effort to impeach Biden. However, without an actual crime, this blatantly partisan payback scheme went nowhere.
Pathetic: “Biden would also likely crush Trump in any one-to-one debate.”
This was one of the biggest surprises of the year. On June 26, Biden proved weak, incapable and almost senile in his debate with Trump. It was probably the most consequential debate in American history and led to Biden dropping his re-election bid on July 21 in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris.
Prophetic: “The possibility of one—or even both—of the candidates dropping out or dropping dead must be considered.”
Biden dropped out and Trump was nearly felled by an assassin’s bullet on July 13.
Prophetic: “If either man falls the entire political calculation will fundamentally change.”
That’s exactly what happened when Biden dropped out and Harris took his place.
Prophetic: “In Florida questions that loom for 2024 are: will pro-choicers get their amendment on the ballot? Can the DeSantis administration suppress it through the courts? Will Florida officials invalidate the signatures? And if it is on the ballot, will it receive the 60 percent approval from voters to pass?”
Pro-choicers got Amendment 4 guaranteeing a woman’s right to an abortion on the ballot and sure enough, the DeSantis administration tried to suppress it through the courts and invalidate the signatures. Ultimately, it failed to get the 60 percent of votes needed to pass.
From: “Part II - A democracy, if you can keep it: Anticipating the year ahead abroad
Prophetic: On the war in Ukraine, “there’s no end in sight right now and the war seems set to continue in its current state for at least another year.”
Indeed, the war continues and The Paradise Progressive was further prophetic when it noted that as long as Russian President Vladimir Putin was alive, “the course of Russian policy and warmaking will likely remain as it has since the invasion.”
Prophetic: On the war in Gaza: “All Hamas has to do in the year ahead to win its war is simply survive since [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu set the Israeli war goal as destroying it. Israel seems unlikely to achieve its goal before the year is out.”
Even with the death of its leader, Yahya Sinwar, Hamas fights on and the war in Gaza is active. But as was also predicted: “If all other factors remain the same Netanyahu will continue Israel’s current course no matter how long it takes or what it costs in blood, treasure, or prestige.” That was certainly prophetic.
Prophetic: Continuation of the war meant the possibility that “yet another front opens or a third major war suddenly breaks out somewhere during the year.”
Israel pre-emptively opened another front against Hezbollah in Lebanon and conducted a virtually separate war there. Then, suddenly in December, in Syria the regime of President Bashar al Assad fell to rebels.
Pathetic: “Given the tensions, stakes and desperation in so many theaters there will undoubtedly be terror and mass casualty events in the United States this year, some of them severe.”
This did not come to pass, in large part thanks to the vigilance and professionalism of federal counter-terror agencies and personnel.
Prophetic: “There may be efforts to stop voting or scare people away from polling places.”
This came true when 67 bomb threats were called in to polling places in 19 counties in five battleground states, all of them in mostly Democratic counties. It was a tactic that has caused critics to question whether these were deliberate efforts by a foreign power to skew the voting results.
Prophetic: “Some lone shooters, random crazies and violent extremists will get through.”
That’s what happened in Butler, Pennsylvania on July 13, although Ryan Wesley Routh’s staking out of a sniper position on the Trump golf course in West Palm Beach, Fla., on Sept. 15 was caught before any shots were fired.
Prophetic: “As Russia has interfered in US elections ever since 2016, so it can be expected to attempt to interfere in the 2024 election.”
As noted previously, there are suspicions of Russian interference in the election and the Putin government seemed to reference these in November when Nikolai Patrushev, a member of Vladimir Putin’s inner circle and former Secretary of the Security Council told a Russian newspaper that “To achieve success in the elections, Donald Trump relied on certain forces to which he has corresponding obligations. And as a responsible person, he will be obliged to fulfill them.”
However, with Trump declared the winner, the disbanding of the cases against him and the dropping of investigations by prosecutor Jack Smith, the American people may never know the full extent and nature of Russian intervention in America’s 2024 election—and the public will certainly not learn it from any official body of the US government under a Trump administration.
Pathetic: “Migrant flows to the US southern border are already at record levels. They will likely skyrocket as the year proceeds.”
Instead, the exact opposite occurred; border apprehensions and encounters with US authorities fell sharply. As a Pew Research Center analysis put it on Oct. 1: “After reaching a record high at the end of 2023, the monthly number of U.S. Border Patrol encounters with migrants crossing into the United States from Mexico has plummeted so far in 2024.”
According to the Pew analysis, the Border Patrol recorded 58,038 encounters with migrants crossing the U.S.-Mexico border in August 2024, a 77 percent decline from 249,741 encounters in December 2023, the most ever recorded in a single month.
And why this sudden plummet in crossings and encounters? “The decline in encounters has come amid policy changes on both sides of the border,” stated Pew. “Authorities in Mexico have stepped up enforcement to prevent migrants from reaching the U.S. border. And U.S. President Joe Biden issued an executive order in June that makes it much more difficult for migrants who enter the U.S. without legal permission to seek asylum and remain in the country.”
So Biden administration changes made a big difference in border crossings but not in time or with the fanfare to stave off wild Republican charges that the border was “open” and unpoliced.
Prophetic: “…The surge at the border will no doubt be a major headache and vulnerability for Biden this year.”
While there was no surge, it was still a headache—but largely because Trump prevented consideration and passage of a bipartisan border security bill that addressed many of the problems. As the article predicted, he and Republicans “can be expected to exploit the situation to the full,” which they did.
Prophetic: “There is virtually no prospect for any real progress being made on immigration or border security in 2024.” Further, “the prospects for the year ahead are for Trump’s rhetoric on immigrants to keep getting uglier, Republican exploitation of the situation to increase and get more apocalyptic, numbers of migrants and their suffering at the border to keep growing, strains on border security mechanisms to keep expanding and the rewards of finding practical consensus solutions to stay elusive.”
That proved absolutely prophetic.
From: “Part III – A democracy, if you can keep it: Collier County, Fla., and the war on competence”
Collier County, Fla., faced critical elections for its Board of Commissioners and School Board in 2024.
But the biggest surprise came in June when Francis Alfred “Alfie” Oakes III, the outspokenly conservative and pro-Trump farmer, grocer, activist and major Collier County power broker, missed the deadline to file his candidacy papers for State Committeeman and lost his official position on the Collier County Republican Executive Committee. The Paradise Progressive certainly did not foresee that.
Prophetic: “So going into 2024, Collier County voters are faced with seasoned candidates with experience, knowledge and proven competence in their fields or unseasoned MAGA amateurs running on grievances, conspiracies and blind belief.”
Ironically enough, in the Aug. 20 party primary, Collier County Republicans rejected, as one piece of campaign literature put it, “angry, inexperienced individuals” for critical positions in county government and instead voted for seasoned, proven candidates. In particular, Melissa Blazier retained her position as Supervisor of Elections, despite two challengers.
At least in this corner of Florida, as prophetically predicted, the result was “a county that is run on behalf of its residents with effectiveness, efficiency and integrity.”
Summing up
By and large, when it came to broad trends, The Paradise Progressive’s projections for 2024 were strikingly prophetic.
But lest that seem too self-congratulatory, it must be pointed out that it made no firm predictions on outcomes: it never stated who would win at the ballot box, whether locally or nationally, or which side would win the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, or how the Florida constitutional amendments would turn out.
Further, it did not foresee the dramatic, abrupt turns of the year in domestic politics: Biden’s dropping out; Trump’s near-assassination; the Harris candidacy.
Locally, some of the biggest unforeseen developments were Alfie Oakes’ disqualification from Republican Party candidacy; the massive search of his properties by federal law enforcement agencies on Nov. 7; and, in Lee County, the allegations and investigation into corruption by Sheriff Carmine Marceno.
The consequences from these events will play out in 2025.
Indeed, what will 2025 bring the nation, the world and especially Southwest Florida? Informed and humbled by its record from 2024, The Paradise Progressive will be looking ahead at likely developments in days to come.
And that, at least, is a prophecy on which you can count.
Liberty lives in light
© 2024 by David Silverberg