(Art: IA Wordpress)
Jan. 1, 2025 by David Silverberg
This will be a dark and tragic year—unless a miracle intervenes
It will be chaotic, disruptive and stressful.
Make no mistake: it will be a year of assault on freedom, democracy, the rule of law and the Constitution.
America is not facing a mere change of administrations; it is facing a revolution from above and one so sweeping and comprehensive that firm and confident predictions are almost impossible to make.
More relevant than attempted predictions are the questions that will arise as the year unfolds.
The key one will be: as darkness descends, how can light be kept alive?
After all, what once passed for “politics” is no more.
In the past, “politics” was generally understood to mean the interplay of power, policy and personalities, along with popular participation. Governance, representation and elections were its essence and informed voting citizens were its foundation.
Now American politics—or more accurately, governance—will revolve around the whims, urges and rages of a single individual.
It is exactly the situation that the Founders rebelled against and sought to avoid. But Donald Trump 2.0 will ultimately affect every aspect of American life. No place or person will be unaffected.
The story of the year is going to be the interaction between the Trump regime (this goes beyond an “administration”) and the American public and the country’s constitutional institutions.
Ultimately, the question will be whether the Constitution survives the pressures and efforts to change, ignore or destroy it and whether American democracy can withstand his assaults.
Trump and his legions can be expected to hit hard and move fast. There will be sweeping disruptions, especially in the first 100 days of the regime, indeed probably even announced in the inaugural address on Jan. 20. Even on his first day, Trump has said he will be a dictator and issue an avalanche of executive orders to—at the very least—encourage fossil fuel exploration and usage, round up migrants and pardon January 6th insurrectionists. But numerous other orders are likely to go much further.
Aside from executive actions, people can expect the norms that ensured civility, rationality and decent conduct at the highest levels of government to face constant assaults and efforts to overthrow them—and they are likely to crumble.
What is more, they are likely to see the breakdown in civility and decency at street level, in their neighborhoods, and in their everyday interactions. After all, presidents have always served as role models. Donald Trump will turn the presidential bully pulpit into a pulpit for bullying.
The shooting and killing of Brian Thompson, chief executive officer of UnitedHealthcare in New York, no matter how unrelated to electoral politics, is likely a precursor of more violence to come.
But even short of physical violence, personal conduct is likely to become nastier, more uncivil, more entitled, more insulting and more arrogant in imitation of Trump’s example.
Will the American public accept and approve of this disruption and will public opinion count at all in making national policy?
Will there be any consideration of the needs of ordinary Americans as the Trump regime’s roster is filled with billionaires? How long will Elon Musk stay in Trump’s good graces before he’s jettisoned? How far will the American tax structure be altered to favor the very rich while putting the burden of supporting the state on those least able to afford it?
Economically, will measures like extreme tariffs so drive up the cost of goods that the life to which Americans have been accustomed becomes unsustainable? Will Trump hurl the United States into a Venezuelan or Zimbabwean economic fiasco?
For those who do not buy into the Trump personality cult the overarching question will be how to respond. Is resistance the answer and what form it will take? Is it still worthwhile to work through existing institutions, which will increasingly be assaulted and weakened? Is it principled civil disobedience, with all its dangers and penalties? Is the answer personal withdrawal from the public arena and a quest for inner tranquility? Or just leaving the country altogether?
As official delusion and deception become the norm and independent media is beaten down and intimidated, how will people find the truth, share it and act on it? As government actions become increasingly immoral and inhumane, how can people respond in an ethical way?
In purely practical, everyday terms, how can the average grassroots citizen thrive or even survive under a government and in an economy in constant turmoil and subject to unpredictable and unforeseeable changes caused by the whims of one man?
As previously seemingly solid social safety nets like Obamacare, Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid are attacked how will Americans who depend upon them survive?
What will be the consequences of a US government pursuing a policy of isolationism, anti-immigration, withdrawal and xenophobia? To what degree will a draconian anti-immigrant effort driven by extremists creep over the line into “ethnic cleansing?” And to what degree will those states, cities and citizens that resist these efforts suffer for their dissent?
It will be a year when Donald Trump attempts to dominate all thought, action, law, media, policy, and government and where he fails to do this personally, his cultists, followers and enablers will work on his behalf and toward his ends.
This regime will be characterized by pettiness, cruelty, hatred, prejudice, rage, disparagement, racism, misogyny, and criminality. It will rule through threats, intimidation and defamation. It will be corrupt to its very marrow.
Americans will know a new emotion from their government: fear. They will go from the most fearless people in the world to among the more fearful, a much more common sensibility among the governed of the world.
Perhaps the best way to think of what is coming is to think of Donald Trump, not as a president but as a Mafia don, like Don Corleone in The Godfather, with his Make America Great Again (MAGA) followers as his accomplices.
The Don is all-powerful, mercurial, demanding complete obedience and submission. There is no loyal opposition or legitimate differences of opinion; there are only believers and heretics, loyalists and traitors—and heretics and traitors must be punished and eradicated.
This is already in evidence. Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) told a political conference on Dec. 12, that when it came to approving Trump’s appointments, he and his allies had essentially sent a message that: “We got you here. And if you want to survive, you better be good.”
Or as Florida pundit and Lincoln Project co-founder Rick Wilson put it in an essay titled The Administration from Hell: “Trump is the Prince of Darkness in this particular drama. He wants nothing more than to destroy everything in his path. It’s not always coherent, but it’s always him.”
Southwest Florida, for all the noisy, fanatical Trumpism of some of its residents, will not be spared the consequences of the chaos, incompetence and misrule that will likely characterize this year and every year that Trump is in office.
Indeed, the Trump transformation appears at its outset to be so sweeping and comprehensive that perhaps it is best to concentrate on its impact on Southwest Florida to get a sense of its effects both locally and nationwide.
The new trail of tears
The first big action being promised by the Trump regime will be roundups and deportations of undocumented migrants.
These roundups will hit Southwest Florida hard, particularly in the agriculture sector, which relies extensively on seasonal migrant workers for harvests of crops such as strawberries, citrus and tomatoes. But it will also impact the construction, hospitality and service trades, which are also highly dependent on migrant labor.
In 2023 the Florida legislature passed, and Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) signed, Senate Bill (SB) 1718, which aimed to crack down on undocumented migration by punishing employers and transporters of undocumented migrants.
While implementation of SB 1718 was uneven due to court challenges, the Florida Policy Institute estimated that the law would cost the state’s economy upwards of $12.6 billion in the first year alone when all the accounting was done. Employers saw an immediate impact. For example, in Fort Myers, the locally well-known firm Crowther Roofing lost 10 percent of its workers in 2023 as a result of the law, its owner, David Crowther, told National Public Radio.
For everyday consumers, anti-immigration measures will mean higher prices and harsher inflation and with national anti-immigrant measures coming on top of the ones that Florida has already enacted, the price at checkout is likely to be steep—to say nothing of the human suffering that will underly it.
Trump, his followers and his executive branch nominees are stating that their roundups are only aimed at purging the country of violent offenders and proven criminals.
In fact, the administration of President Barack Obama pursued a policy of detaining and deporting criminal, undocumented migrants and deported 1.18 million people in its first three years. But that effort was relatively quiet. It was meant to be effective and actually accomplish its mission of making American streets safer and enforcing the law. President Joe Biden followed a similar course, deporting 1.1 million people in the fiscal years from 2021 to 2024. Furthermore, these efforts were accompanied by reform efforts aimed at giving undocumented aliens a chance to “get right with the law” and find a path to legitimate citizenship.
But the Trump roundup can be expected to be spectacular, very public and as harsh as possible. It will likely be conducted as a television spectacle, a reality show intended to send a message of mercilessness to the world that discourages all immigration, legal and otherwise.
Unlike previous immigration reform efforts like those made in 2007, 2014 and most recently the bipartisan effort in the Senate that sought a border solution providing security and smart enforcement while also providing labor and economic benefits, this crackdown will likely be driven more by hatred of all immigrants than policy goals. It will likely be infused with rage and racist rhetoric by both Trump and his loyalists as they seek to make America white again.
For the first time there will be concentration camps on American soil and Americans will see them on their television screens. The state of Texas has already offered land for their construction. Even as Trump himself expressed sympathy for “dreamers,” people brought illegally into the United States as children, his would-be implementers like prospective Border Patrol chief Tom Homan, have stated that any leniency on dreamers would be contingent on Democratic support for harsh border measures.
These roundups and deportations will likely be fought in the courts but with its placement of obedient judges, the regime will probably plow through the court system the same way Trump plowed through his criminal cases. Those cases that reach the Supreme Court will be adjudicated by a Trump-appointed majority of justices—and he may gain more appointments as sitting justices retire.
Ultimately, the anti-migrant effort will be aimed at cutting off the influx of people seeking to live, work and contribute to the United States, to isolate the nation, and “cleanse” it of all races and ethnicities that come from what Trump in 2018 termed “shithole countries.”
Trade wars and tariffs
One of America’s greatest blessings is that it shares borders with two countries with which it is at peace and who constitute its largest trading partners.
That trade is massive: $908.9 billion with Canada in 2022, according to the US Trade Representative. US exports were $427.7 billion and imports were $481.2 billion. Trade with Mexico was similarly robust: $855.1 billion with in 2022 with exports of $362.0 billion and imports of $493.1 billion.
Trump is promising to upend this happy situation with a completely unnecessary and unprovoked trade war as he seeks to impose crippling tariffs.
In Trump’s mind tariffs are cost-free sources of revenue and he’s justifying these by saying he wants to force Mexico and Canada to take stronger border measures against undocumented migrants and contraband.
In fact, free North American trade benefits all countries and the kind of 25 percent tariffs Trump has floated would land squarely on the American consumer who would see prices skyrocket, especially for items like durable goods, car parts and food, which make up much of North American trade.
Both Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum have made their cases personally to Trump in an effort to dissuade him from this course of action.
But this is a perfect example of the perversion of American government by the Trump regime. Any policy decision will not be reached by reasoned analysis and debate; instead it will depend on the mood of the monarch, backed by a subservient Congress and his political base.
If Trumpflag-waving Southwest Floridians think they will be spared crippling inflation and a scarcity of goods, they should think again. At the very least the prices for the Canadian-made replacement parts for their sticker-covered pickup trucks are going to rise to the point where they’ll have to jury-rig their swamp buggies like Cubans keeping their 1959 Chevvies on the road.
The war on women
The 2024 election was a setback for women politically.
Trump’s record on women is nauseatingly long and detailed and needs no recounting here. His initial nominees for high office—Matt Gaetz for Attorney General and Peter Hegseth for Secretary of Defense—faced well-documented allegations of harassment, trafficking, underage sex and even rape. Once upon a time, these charges would have been automatically disqualifying for high office. But now it is as though attacks on women are a criterion for nomination.
It all spoke volumes about the regime’s attitude. Only true MAGA believers like former governor Kristi Noem and White House Chief of Staff Susan “Susie” Wiles will have a say in the regime, while independent voices like Nimarata “Nikki” Haley, who challenged Trump in the primaries, will be excluded.
When it comes to abortion, Trump has stated that he will leave it up to the individual states—i.e., where it stands right now. However, the anti-choice movement is likely to push for a national ban. A big question in the year ahead will be how much resistance anti-choicers meet, how effective that resistance proves to be, and whether Trump changes his mind.
Florida is already a petri dish for this (as will be covered in detail in a future posting).
The war on truth, science, health and learning
The accession of Donald Trump to the presidency will mean the return of what has been called “Trumpality,” the Trump worldview or mindset in which objective truth has little to no value.
This could be seen from the very day after he took office in 2017 when he had his spokesman, Sean Spicer, insist that he’d had the largest inaugural crowd in history despite clear and obvious evidence to the contrary. It was so absurd an assertion that it led to one of the greatest sketches in the history of Saturday Night Live.
Trump is aggressively taking legal action against media reporting he dislikes. He sued ABC News for erroneously reporting that he had been liable for rape rather than the correct “sexual abuse” and won a $15 million settlement. On Dec. 17 he announced a lawsuit against Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer and the Des Moines Register for reporting that he was down in their polling prior to the primary caucuses.
He is promising many more such lawsuits in the future. But in a broader sense, the imposition of Trumpality in the coming year will be pervasive and likely crippling to a United States whose whole success has been built on determining and responding to reality.
For over 200 years, virtually from the moment Benjamin Franklin scientifically determined that lightning was electricity, the thrust of American thought was to clinically understand the world in as realistic a way as possible in order to effectively respond to it.
But in the first Trump administration the world was treated to the spectacle of a president who tried to change the course of a hurricane with a Sharpie, who dismissed as hoaxes anything he disliked, from a COVID outbreak to climate change, and who ultimately denied the reality that he had lost the 2020 election.
That delusional thinking will not only likely be evident this year, it will be imposed from above. It will likely affect everything from public health to weather forecasting. It will pervade the media whether mainstream, social or ideological as they both report what he asserts no matter how false and acquiesce to his version of events to avoid retaliation or retribution.
The opposition to vaccines and public health measures as evidenced by the nomination of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., as Secretary of Health and Human Services, has the potential to wipe out a century of medical progress and scientific advancement in promoting public health and replace it with a brew of conspiracy theories, disbelief and even outright superstition.
A Trump war on science and even the notion of climate change will likely have a devastating impact on Southwest Florida, which in recent years has found itself even more reliant on accurate weather forecasting in the face of multiple hurricanes and dependent on support from the Federal Emergency Management Agency to rebuild and recover from the storms.
Trump and his minions have vowed to eliminate the Department of Education and there is a strong possibility that they will find a way to do it this year—with extreme prejudice.
What that will likely mean is a loss of grants and funding to promote education and educational initiatives.
In the 2024-25 fiscal years, Collier County, Fla., received $7 million in direct federal education grants and an additional $80 million in federal funding through the state. The Lee County School District received $154 million or 5 percent of its budget in federal funds. Both will feel a severe impact if federal funding is cut off because the Department of Education and its grant programs are eliminated.
Every other school system throughout the country will face the same.
The war on equality
“We hold these truths to be self-evident: that all men are created equal… ,” states the Declaration of Independence.
While more modern usage might change that sentence to “all people are created equal,” the fact remains that idea of human equality is the cornerstone, the fundamental bedrock on which all American government, law and society is built. Advancing equality is what defines the American notion of progress. All the social and political advances in American history—emancipation, women’s suffrage, civil rights, integration, non-discrimination—were based on advancing equality to all.
The idea of equality pervades all American law; on the lintel of the US Supreme Court is the motto: “Equal justice under law.” It means that the law applies equally to absolutely everyone and that it will be administered impartially to all.
But that is no longer the case. The anti-equality movement has now established that there is one person who is officially above the law. Donald Trump is the living embodiment of it.
He has plowed through every application of law, every enforcement action, every civil proceeding, every impeachment effort and through a jury’s criminal verdict. He will likely never be sentenced for the 34 felonies of which he was convicted. He has been handed immunity by the Supreme Court. In his own mind he is and will forever be guiltless for any action he has ever committed and now that will be the case in fact, likely encouraging new crimes.
For the first time in its history since it threw off the shackles of a distant king, Americans are led by one person who is above the law. He is a de facto monarch, a single source of power. The Declaration’s truth is no longer self-evident. All people under the Constitution of the United States are not created equal.
As of right now, only that one person is officially above the law. But in the coming year and in all the years subsequent in which this situation continues, others will claim or attempt to attain this elevated status. Over time the idea of equality before the law will face disintegration. Those who are clearly guilty of crimes will walk free and defiant—imitating and citing Donald Trump—and the majesty, dignity and most of all, authority, of the law will crumble down to the lowliest courtroom and street cop.
In this Trump will be aided and abetted by a subservient, all-Trumpist Congress, hand-picked, blindly loyal judges, and an avalanche of propaganda justifying it all.
The war on equality is already under way in Florida, where in May, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) signed Senate Bill 266, a law banning the pursuit of diversity, equity and inclusion in state college hiring decisions. This comes on top of the Stop WOKE (Wrongs to Our Kids and Employees) Act passed in 2022 that prohibited discussion of the impact of racism and gender inequality in state schools and businesses.
Although the Stop WOKE Act is still subject to court proceedings and parts of it have been ruled invalid, it remains in force in Florida. In the year to come versions of it are likely to be passed in other state legislatures and nationally, with encouragement from the White House.
The war on equality in all forms is almost certain to take place on many fronts this year.
The opposition
For Democrats and the 75 million Americans who opposed this state of affairs at the ballot box, this will likely be a year of introspection, healing, reorganizing, reassessing and most of all, learning to endure.
For the Democratic Party and its caucus in Congress, it is clearly time to pass the torch to a new generation, just as Biden (82 years old) had to pass the torch to Vice President Kamala Harris (60 years). In 2022 then-House Speaker Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-12-Calif.) (84 years) stepped aside in favor of Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-8-NY) (54 years). But the transition will not be smooth or even. For example, Rep. Gerry Connelly (D-11-Va.) (74 years) bested Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-14-NY) (35 years) for the ranking position on the House Oversight Committee in what was seen as an early test of generational change.
There may be handings off of batons to younger politicians. But it will take time for the next generation to consolidate, find its footing and build political capital. As they do this they will be under extreme pressure from the Trump regime and its party to thwart their every effort. Nor will the pressure only be national; it will be at the state level too and it will all be very personal.
The most obvious possible Democratic presidential candidate to challenge Trump in 2028 (if there’s an election and if Trump runs again) is Gov. Gavin Newsom of California.
The world can expect a massive Trumpist war against Newsom and the state of California starting this year and every year that Trump is president.
California will no doubt be denied federal disaster benefits (in 2020 Trump said it could avoid wildfires by raking up leaves and threatened at the time to withhold disaster aid). That Trump will use the full force and power of the federal government against a potential rival was demonstrated in 2019 when he tried to get Ukrainian help against Joe Biden, for which he was impeached, although acquitted.
But it won’t just be Trump attacking California, it will be the entire regime and the Trumpist movement because California is the most obvious target for anti-“woke” crusading.
Also, California has Hollywood, which has been a target of conservatives since movies started being made there over a century ago. The world’s entertainment celebrities, having overwhelmingly endorsed Harris, can expect retaliation this year and beyond. Once again, Florida provides a good example of this kind of warfare, where DeSantis went to war against the Disney corporation for its “woke” heresy.
Indeed, throughout the country expect attacks aimed at denying Democrats any possibility of ever winning any election again at any level, whether through ballot access denial or election interference in Democratic districts and cities, especially, in response to opposition to anti-migrant roundups and deportations and possible “sanctuary” cities.
This will be more than just competition. The regime will attempt what has been called “politicide”—the political destruction of a party, movement or belief system.
Responding, persisting and surviving
How can non-Trumpers of all stripes and parties respond to this onslaught and prevent it from succeeding?
One answer is from Rick Wilson who argued that all of Trump’s appointments should be fought tooth and nail: “Every one of them. Stop the worst. Expose the rest.”
Moreover, he argued: “Attack the disinformation infrastructure. MAGA thrives on lies. Cut off their supply.
“Brand the MAGA GOP. Chaos, corruption, and crisis—they own it. Make it stick.
“Prepare for 2026 and 2028. The battle for America’s soul didn’t end on November 5th.
“Lead with courage. Fear and apathy are their weapons. Fight back with strength.”
A similar response came in an answer to a question from a reader who expressed despair and hopelessness in The Washington Post. Jennifer Rubin, a Washington Post columnist, responded: “It is a common sentiment these days, but giving way to hopelessness ensures the triumph of cruelty and authoritarianism. We owe it to our more vulnerable fellow Americans to continue to fight for our democracy. Every day, civil servants trying to hold the line, judges committing to the rule of law and activists struggling on behalf of immigrants and other at-risk people will get up, do their work, and try to move the needle in the direction of justice, fairness and freedom. The least the rest of us can do is not surrender. No single person can fix everything, but there is something everyone can do, even if it is just buying one subscription to a quality local newspaper, writing one letter to a lawmaker, attending a school board meeting, volunteering in your community, or supporting a decent person’s candidacy for local, state or federal office.”
There is no doubt, though, that 2025 will be a year of defense for all who oppose Trump’s absolutism. It will be a year to protect the Constitution—and all the rights it enshrines—from an unconstitutional onslaught and even efforts to change it by, for example, ending birthright citizenship or prolonging the presidential term.
Trump and his regime have the momentum going into the year but that momentum and whatever victories they score are unlikely to last forever.
The past historical record shows that authoritarian regimes can succeed for a time but then usually make a major miscalculation or face an overwhelming crisis that the supreme leader is unable to overcome, usually as a result of overweening ambition: for example, Adolf Hitler invaded the Soviet Union; Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait; Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine.
In the case of Trump, when faced with the COVID outbreak in 2019 he initially dismissed it, wished it away, derided it, then prescribed absurd responses like fake drugs and injecting bleach. It exposed his unfitness, incompetence and belief that his delusions could become reality. It was a major factor in his 2020 defeat—another setback he tried to imagine away.
In the second Trump presidency, after a period of irrational exuberance and the complete deregulation of commerce and industry, an economic crash on the order of 1929’s looms as the most the probable disaster. That may not occur until after Trump’s first year.
“Monarchy is like a sleek craft, it sails along well until some bumbling captain runs it into the rocks,” said Fisher Ames, one of the earliest members of Congress. “Democracy, on the other hand, is like a raft. It never goes down but, dammit, your feet are always wet.”
Historically, authoritarian regimes have also been riven and sometimes brought down by factional differences. As political differences cease to be expressed in open, multi-party forums and through elections, they appear as internecine battles within the ruling regime.
An early expression of this was evidenced last month in an argument over continuation of H-1B visas for highly skilled foreigners, with Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy of the nascent Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) arguing to continue the program and anti-immigration MAGAs like Laura Loomer, Charlie Kirk and Steve Bannon calling for its elimination.
The DOGE brothers appear to have won that battle but it is indicative of the kind of infighting to be expected from the Trump regime, that will have echoes at the grassroots.
A climate change-related natural disaster along the lines of 2005’s Hurricane Katrina is also a strong possibility.
The horrible irony of all this is that for all the conservative bleating about “American exceptionalism” and Trump’s past rants about an America in decline that only he can save, the policies he and Musk seem determined to pursue will firmly and irrevocably put America on the same path of decline and decrepitude that has afflicted every great nation and empire throughout history. Moreover, Trump seems determined to lead the nation over this cliff while blinding the public with lies, delusions, and emotional chest-thumping nativism and hyper-nationalism.
There’s no doubt that it will be a long and difficult year. Friends of democracy need to prepare for a lengthy marathon. The sprint is over.
However, like the jewel at the bottom of Pandora’s box, there’s still hope and the unlikely inspiration for it is provided by, of all people, Donald Trump.
After being defeated in 2020, after a delusional and fruitless effort to overturn the election, after impeachment, disgrace, Florida exile, investigations, derision, trial, and criminal conviction, Trump came back from political Hell to win the presidency.
If Trump can make such a comeback on behalf of selfishness and greed, then surely those who oppose him can also come back from defeat and disaster, loss and setback. With persistence and determination they can rebuild and renew themselves and take the first steps on a road that, no matter how long and hard it may be, will truly make America great again.
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Tomorrow: Part 2: Darkness descends: Anticipating the year ahead abroad and the new triumvirate
Coming Jan. 3: Part 3—Defying darkness: Southwest Florida politics and the year ahead
Liberty lives in light
© 2025 by David Silverberg