Donald Trump (Art: AI)
Nov. 11, 2024 by David Silverberg
“Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard,” the writer HL Mencken once observed.
Having elected Donald Trump to a second term in office, Americans are going get the Trump agenda “good and hard:” Project 2025 will be implemented whether Trump knows what it is or not, mass roundups of migrants and even legal immigrants are likely starting on day one and Trump will rule—not govern, rule—with absolute immunity and without any checks or balances whatever.
There is no sugarcoating this: it is an absolute catastrophe. It has no redeeming aspects. It is a disaster for America and the world.
That being the case, it may be useful, if not exactly comforting, to get a sense of what the second Trump presidency will be like for everyday Americans. (To read an early exploration of this, see: “Staring into the nightmare: What would life be like under a Trump dictatorship?”)
Two models suggest themselves as possible precursors for Trump’s governance. One is what we’ll call the “Florida model” and the other is the Vladimir Putin model.
The Florida model
In 2022 Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) won re-election with a 20 percent margin, giving him an ironclad mandate, a super-majority Republican legislature in both houses and a Supreme Court of his own choosing. What this effectively meant was that there were no checks or balances on executive authority or scope of action.
It was largely the same situation in which Trump finds himself today, although final disposition of the US House of Representatives remains uncertain as of this writing.
(Regarding the judicial branch, DeSantis has appointed five of the seven justices currently on the state Supreme Court. In Florida, state Supreme Court justices are appointed to six-year terms by the governor from Judicial Nominating Commission recommendations. There is no advice or consent by the state Senate but judges are subject to retention votes after one year in office and must retire at age 75.)
Also similar to Trump’s situation, DeSantis aggressively promoted an ideological agenda and imposed it on the state. In large part, this was driven by his 2023 run for president against Trump, his previous mentor and patron. Essentially, DeSantis sought to offer an alternative to Trump but still promoted Trumpism. As his campaign slogan put it, he sought to “Make America Florida.” That meant promoting measures that in some cases were even more extreme than Trump’s. (Ultimately, it didn’t work as a campaign strategy.)
With a subservient legislature that was in his corner ideologically and whose members sought to be even more extreme, the state government of Florida proceeded to pass and enact the 2022 Stop WOKE (Wrongs to Our Kids and Employees) Act that outlawed mandated diversity, equity and inclusion in both public and private spheres. It sought to reshape education by banning discussion of sexuality. It encouraged widespread book bans. It enacted one of the most severe anti-abortion laws in the United States. It stripped towns and localities of autonomy whether in responding to climate change or, in perhaps the most notorious instance, enacting employment regulations prohibiting heat breaks for workers. It clamped down on academic freedom and replaced seasoned university educators with ideological loyalists. It reshaped local school boards at the elementary and secondary levels to ensure ideological conformity. During the COVID pandemic it defied science and sound public health practices, with its surgeon general denouncing vaccines and protective measures. The governor attacked the media verbally and his officials threatened lawsuits and prosecution to stop coverage. It passed draconian measures against migrants and discouraged immigration. It went to war against the Disney corporation that criticized its decrees.
In all, the second DeSantis term provided the model of a regime that was unchecked by any kind of effective opposition in its ideological crusade but still worked through an existing constitutional and legal framework. Although it made for a chaotic and sometimes jerky patchwork of actions and laws that occasionally ran afoul of judicial judgments, it succeeded in clamping down on free expression of ideas in the public square, in schools and academia, as intended. Culturally, it went a long way toward imposing a sclerotic, regressive official culture on the state that brooked no dissent, independence—or creativity.
Given that Trump is a Floridian and much of his administration is likely to be staffed by loyalist Floridians, these ideas and practices will probably provide much of the policy and legislative framework for the entire country when the new regime takes power.
Presumably, as in Florida, the incoming Republican regime will work through already standing procedures so proposals will have to be considered and approved by Congress and signed by the president, providing some space for debate and dissent rather than outright rule by decree.
One disturbing trend that emerged in Florida under DeSantis that could manifest itself nationally under Trump is the inclination to ban political parties and make the Republican Party the only allowed political organ. In 2023 there was one legislative proposal to decertify the Democratic Party but it wasn’t seriously pursued or considered. However, Christian Ziegler, who was chair of the Florida Republican Party before being deposed in a sex scandal, once said that: “For the Republican Party of Florida the work continues as our job is not done until there are no more Democrats in Florida.”
This extremist rhetoric and legislative activity in Florida bespeak an absolutist mentality that has been a critical aspect of authoritarian regimes throughout history and could be extended to the entire United States.
The Putin model
There are many possibilities in trying to think through the future course of a Trump dictatorship. Another preview is not Trump’s previous presidency but the reign of Russian President Vladimir Putin, whom Trump idolizes, likely obeys, and is highly likely to emulate.
Putin came to power, not with a tsarist bang or as some kind of television star, but during the chaotic but democratic administration of President Boris Yeltsin. After a career in the Soviet spy service, the KGB, he served as an obscure bureaucrat working in the St. Petersburg municipal government. He steadily rose through various government agencies, founding a liberal political party along the way that would provide him a popular base. He entered Yeltsin’s inner circle, ultimately replacing him in return for issuing a pardon that exonerated Yeltsin and members of his family for alleged corruption. Throughout Putin’s career he was also promoted by elements of the old Soviet security community, known as the siloviki, which pushed his advancement.
Since first becoming president in 2000 Putin has tightened his grip on Russia using techniques Trump is likely to imitate. (More below.)
Putin’s increasingly repressive and absolute hold on power was gradual, and faced opposition from people who worked through legal, constitutional means. However, he brought economic order and stability to what had been a wrenching transition to capitalism from communism, building a genuinely supportive following.
An increasingly subservient parliament or Duma passed gradually more repressive laws at Putin’s direction. The Constitution was amended to enhance his powers. The initial generation of billionaire oligarchs was murdered, prosecuted, bullied or co-opted into obedience. Russian law was weaponized to return desired verdicts in cases against Putin’s targets. What was briefly a freewheeling, independent media was brought to heel. Numerous political parties were banned. Elections were increasingly subverted and became decreasingly free or fair, resulting in, for example, an 88 percent return for Putin in the 2024 election.
Some measures stood out as especially Putinesque: one was the outright murder of opponents, critics and journalists whether in Russia or abroad, often through exotic poisons or elaborately staged assassinations.
Another was his ability to alter the Constitution to extend his terms in office until today he is in this fifth term and effectively president-for-life.
Given Trump’s scorn for elections and his refusal to accept adverse electoral outcomes, the Putin model, or at least elements of it, is highly likely to be followed in the coming Trump administration.
Red flags and red lines
Based on these models and the historic course of dictatorships, Americans who value a pre-Trump democratic society and government under the Constitution should regard some developments as red flags marking the imposition of outright despotism.
What are these red flags?
Changing the Constitution
Every dictator who came to power through democratic means made changing the country’s Constitution a priority; thereby ensuring that he would never jeopardize his control again.
Putin oversaw several changes to the post-Communist Constitution. This also applied in Nazi Germany. Once he legally entered parliamentary government as chancellor, Adolf Hitler pushed through an “Enabling Law” that allowed him to govern without parliamentary approval.
The probability that Trump and what is likely to be a rubber-stamp Congress will attempt to alter the US Constitution or do away with it altogether is very high and Trump has said that the outcome of the 2020 election, which he falsely called fraudulent, justified “termination of all rules, regulations, and articles, even those found in the Constitution.”
While the existing process for amending the Constitution is long and arduous, a regime that ignores rules and procedures may attempt to dispense with them and make the changes by decree, with the support of followers in the legislative and judicial branches.
Extending the presidential term
One of the reasons for changing the Constitution is to eliminate limits on the presidential term. Putin did this several times, first extending the presidential term from four to six years and then allowing him to run multiple times. He is now effectively president-for-life. In China President Xi Jinping did the same and is also effectively a president-for-life.
It seems almost certain that Trump will also attempt to alter the two-term presidential limit either through a constitutional amendment or by outright fiat or coup. He did not accept constitutional or legal limits when he was defeated in 2020 and tried to overturn that election. If he is not felled by ill-health or natural causes by 2028, there is a high likelihood that he will seek to stay in office for the duration of his natural life. In this he will likely be enabled by obedient supporters in Congress, loyalists in the executive branch, a hand-picked judiciary—which may expand with additional Supreme Court appointments—and his cultists among the public.
Postponing, canceling or rigging elections
The pillar of American constitutional government has been the absolute commitment to holding elections at their constitutionally determined times. This has held throughout American history.
(To the best of this author’s ability to determine, the only postponed election in all of American history occurred on Sept. 11, 2001 when the terrorist attack disrupted a scheduled New York City primary election. In the aftermath of the attack, when Mayor Rudy Giuliani wanted to extend his term by three months to deal with its consequences, the New York legislature refused on the principle that keeping to an election schedule was greater than the exigencies of the moment no matter how grave. President Abraham Lincoln too refused to postpone the election of 1864 in the midst of the Civil War.)
A red flag marking a major move toward tyranny would be any attempt by Trump or his allies to postpone, reschedule or cancel the regularly scheduled elections for 2026 or 2028.
Putin’s path to power included regularly scheduled elections. However, as previously noted, these elections became increasingly less free and fair.
From the beginning of his political career Trump has denounced elections with unfavorable outcomes as “rigged” (although he always accepted the results of elections when they were favorable). Given his propensity for projection, there is a high likelihood that future US elections will be rigged the way they are in Russia or in other dictatorships throughout history, to ensure a favorable outcome for Trump.
Murdering opponents
Throughout his political career Trump has fostered and encouraged an atmosphere of violence. This reached a crescendo on Jan. 6, 2021 but even that event will now likely be overshadowed. Violence, threats and intimidation are now likely to be institutionalized during his presidency.
In the early years of past dictatorships the outright murder of prominent opponents brought initial outcries and public reactions. In Italy in 1924 the murder of socialist politician Giacomo Matteotti by Fascist thugs created a huge outcry against Prime Minister Benito Mussolini. While denying direct involvement, Mussolini ultimately took responsibility. However, he then defied authorities to do anything about it and faced no prosecution. Some historians mark this murder and its aftermath as the true start of Mussolini’s dictatorship.
Despite the lack of evidence from a court of law, it can safely be said that Putin has used assassination extensively to eliminate opponents, with poisoning a favorite method. Most recently his foremost political opponent, Alexei Navalny, was first poisoned and then murdered in prison after returning to Russia from exile.
Trump murdered an opponent before, but it was a foreigner: Iranian general Qasem Soleimani. It was done as an official US act and occurred outside the United States but it was an assassination nonetheless and Trump acknowledged responsibility. Whether any other murders have occurred at his command has not been brought to public light.
There is the possibility that prominent American opponents of Trump, if not imprisoned, could be murdered. As Trump infamously noted, “I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose voters.”
Having been granted complete immunity for official acts by the US Supreme Court, the likelihood of domestic political violence, including murder, during the coming Trump regime is very high.
Crushing a free press
A free and independent press is an obstacle to tyranny as both tyrants and democrats have understood throughout history. As the Virginia Declaration of Rights stated in 1776, “…The freedom of the press is one of the greatest bulwarks of liberty and can never be restrained but by despotic governments.” In the modern era all dictators have moved to suppress the media.
In Florida, as noted above, the DeSantis administration threatened prosecution of television channels if they broadcast a pro-choice advertisement. In Russia, Putin cracked down on the media, even regulating bloggers. This last measure had an echo in Florida in 2023 when state Sen. Jason Brodeur (R-10-Seminole and Orange counties) introduced a bill that required bloggers to register with the state if they covered or commented on the governor, Cabinet officers or state legislators. (This bill did not advance.)
Trump has both loathed the media and loved its attention throughout his political career. More recently his threats have become more serious. He has threatened television networks with the loss of their licenses and repeatedly attacked print publications for their actions. These tactics bore fruit this year when both the Los Angeles Times and Washington Post declined to make presidential endorsements.
There is a high likelihood that during his presidency Trump will either actually close down major media outlets through the Federal Communications Commission or bully them sufficiently to prevent critical coverage of his regime and actions.
Bringing billionaires to heel
Putin inherited a number of mega-wealthy billionaires dubbed the “oligarchs,” who had an outsized influence on Russia in the wake of its communist collapse. At least one, Vladimir Gusinsky, owned Russia’s first, free-wheeling independent television station, which featured a satirical show Putin loathed.
Putin broke the power of the oligarchs or pre-empted them throughout the course of his career. Gusinsky was charged with fraud and tax evasion and fled overseas. In addition to Gusinsky, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, at one point the richest man in Russia and owner of the Yukos oil company, was arrested for economic crimes and imprisoned. It sent a chill throughout the Russian oligarchy and did much to break its power. Other billionaires have died under mysterious circumstances.
Trump has been backed by a large number of American billionaires who hope to profit from his election. Chief among them is Elon Musk, who has been promised a high position in the administration.
However, this situation is unlikely to last. Musk, ironically enough, is likely to be an early target when Trump becomes jealous or feels threatened by his prominence and power.
When American billionaires start dying from mysterious ailments or falling out of windows, the American public will know that the era of the billionaires is over and the triumph of Trump is complete.
Outlawing political parties
Outlawing opposition political parties has been a feature of all modern dictatorships. As noted above, there was one attempt to do this in Florida but it wasn’t seriously considered. Nonetheless, Americans should be alert to efforts to ban the Democratic Party, which Trump has called “the enemy within.”
This is a major red flag of encroaching dictatorship.
Personalizing law enforcement
Throughout his first presidency Trump was repeatedly frustrated by attorney generals who refused to commit crimes at his command or who countenanced the independent application of justice. Trump wanted to be above the law at all times and able to prosecute his enemies or other targets at will, without regard to legal or constitutional restraints.
In his second presidency, Trump will no doubt appoint an attorney general who will be completely subservient and will persecute his targets on command regardless of legal restraints, due process or probable cause—a situation akin to Putin’s Russia.
The arc of history
“First time tragedy, second time farce,” Karl Marx once said of the repetition of historical events. With Trump that saying is reversed: if Trump’s first presidency was a chaotic, criminal, corrupt farce, his second presidency will be a directed, deadly, destructive tragedy that will leave the United States vastly diminished and its people oppressed.
Americans may think that a Trump presidency will come to a close in 2028 when Trump’s term theoretically ends in accordance with the Constitution. However, given Trump’s refusal to accept defeat in 2020, his extralegal and even violent efforts to stay in power and his expressed regret that he left office at all, the greater likelihood is that he will, like Putin and Xi, find ways to extend his reign to the end of his natural days and become, effectively, President-for-Life.
He will also be ruling with complete legal immunity, with a completely subservient Congress, a completely compliant Supreme Court and a law enforcement establishment and military that he will not hesitate to deploy to physically crush any opposition.
He is as absolute and unchecked a ruler as America has ever had since King George III.
By their votes the majority of Americans have determined that this is what they want. They chose to inaugurate an era of darkness and oppression.
But what can Americans who believe in the virtues of justice, constitutional government and democracy do?
When there is no formal path to change, there can only be resistance.
There have been other times when America seemed far from its ideals. During the slave era, when this oppressive, peculiar institution had legal, religious and governmental sanction, anti-slavery Americans resisted by forming the Underground Railroad, smuggling slaves to freedom. During Jim Crow, people resisted discrimination and racism any way they could and eventually succeeded in breaking its shackles. During the first Trump presidency, when Americans opposed administration efforts to target migrants, they resisted by forming sanctuary cities where they refused to comply with directives they felt were unethical.
It is a tragedy when law and government diverge from what is moral but it has happened in America before and America appears poised to do so again.
If Trump takes his governing principles from Putin, Americans might draw their inspiration from Russian dissidents. People like Boris Pasternak, Andrei Sakharov, Alexander Solzhenitsyn and Anatoly Shcharansky fought and struggled and pursued freedom, truth and dignity despite the overwhelming and seemingly invincible edifice that was the Soviet state. Then, as Putin’s presidency became more oppressive , people like Alexei Navalny, Vladimir Kara-Murza and Garry Kasparov followed in their footsteps.
Despite the vast odds against them, these people were driven by democratic visions and idealism. They persisted in their dissent over a long period of time without any promise of ultimate success or any prospective date for future victory.
The Rev. Martin Luther King once said that “the arc of history is long but it bends toward justice.” With the election of Donald Trump that arc will be far longer than it might otherwise have been. But unless people continue their efforts to bend it toward justice, it will not bend by itself.
As it was for the American founders and all those who have struggled since, the ultimate goal will remain, as always, justice, equality, dignity and freedom. As in the past, when success was uncertain and the outcome wasn’t guaranteed, people had to commit their lives, their fortunes and their sacred honor to their cause.
That time appears to have come again.
Liberty lives in light
© 2024 by David Silverberg