The 2024 early vote as a share of total 2020 turnout in the United States. (Source: Associated Press and The Washington Post.)
Oct. 27, 2024 by David Silverberg
The only poll that matters is now under way. People are actually voting—and voting in large numbers.
All the relentless polling reported in the media and private polling firms to date was relevant in its time to measure movement, trends and indications in the electorate. Based on those results, campaigns could adjust their approaches, pundits could calibrate their punditry, pollsters could get attention, media outlets had an easy source of headlines and the public could get some indication of voter sentiment.
But with ballots being cast the guesses and projections of the pollsters are now largely irrelevant, although not entirely, because there may still be some undecideds and non-voters yet to be swayed. But it’s safe to say that the majority of Americans have likely made up their minds. A poll one way or another is not going to significantly indicate the outcome.
All the media attention has been on swing states and Florida is largely being overlooked.
But after a week of in-person voting, Southwest Florida supervisors of elections are reporting high turnout.
The turnout gives some indication of the ultimate results because the supervisors report the vote by registered voters. In past elections, people have tended to vote their registrations.
But though the numbers of registered votes are available, the actual tally will not be known until the results are announced on Election Day, Nov. 5. People may vote outside their registered party, which is a strong possibility this year.
These statistics also give no indication of the likely results of any of the ballot amendments or other down-ballot races.
Nonetheless, here is what is available from Collier, Lee and Charlotte counties as of Sunday night. All figures are provided by supervisors of election offices, which are required by state law to provide these figures. Complete, real-time results can be seen on the supervisors’ webpages and links are provided for each county.
As of 8:10 pm, Sunday night, Oct. 27, 41.56 percent of Collier County’s 264,077 eligible voters (109,739 voters) had cast their ballots.
Of these, 51.03 percent were cast by mail and 48.91 percent were cast in-person.
The large majority, 58.91 percent, were cast by registered Republicans. Registered Democrats counted for 20.84 percent of the votes and non-party affiliated (NPAs) counted for 18.35 percent. Other voters (different parties) accounted for only 1.9 percent of the votes cast.
Voting totals by party in Collier County.
This compares with a final turnout of 64.7 percent for the 2022 election and a 90.4 percent turnout for the 2020 election. This year’s turnout seems on a pace to match or exceed that extremely high turnout for the previous presidential election.
As of 8:20 pm, Sunday night, Oct. 27, 42.07 percent of Lee County’s eligible voters (490,412 voters) had cast their ballots.
Of these, 61.21 percent were cast by mail and 38.75 percent were cast in-person.
The large majority, 52.89 percent, were cast by registered Republicans. Registered Democrats counted for 24.05 percent of the votes and non-party affiliated (NPAs) counted for 20.95 percent. Other voters (different parties) accounted for only 2.11 percent of the votes cast.
Voting totals by party in Lee County.
This compares with a final turnout of 50.75 percent for the 2022 general election and an 81.1 percent turnout for the 2020 general election. This year’s turnout seems on a pace to match or exceed that extremely high turnout for the previous presidential election.
As of 8:40 pm, Sunday night, Oct. 27, 39.97 percent of Charlotte County’s eligible voters (155,093 voters) had cast their ballots.
Of these, 53.08 percent were cast by mail and 46.85 percent were cast in-person.
The large majority, 53.98 percent, were cast by registered Republicans. Registered Democrats counted for 24.40 percent of the votes and non-party affiliated (NPAs) counted for 18.8 percent. Other voters (different parties) accounted for only 2.82 percent of the votes cast.
Voting totals by party in Charlotte County.
This compares with a final turnout of 60.61 percent for the 2022 general election and a 77.22 percent turnout for the 2020 general election. This year’s turnout seems on a pace to match or exceed that extremely high turnout for the previous presidential election.
Florida in the nation
According to figures from the Associated Press and The Washington Post, as of Sunday, Oct. 27 at 5:55 pm, in the entire country, 26 percent of the number of people who cast ballots in the last presidential election had voted early in this one.
Florida ranked seventh among the states at 39 percent. Georgia was first, with 56 percent.
The 2024 early vote as a share of total 2020 turnout. Not all states are shown. (Source: Associated Press and The Washington Post.)
Early in-person voting in Collier and Lee counties continues until Nov. 2 and in Charlotte County until Nov. 3. The locations of early in-person polling places are available on the supervisors’ websites.
Liberty lives in light
© 2024 by David Silverberg