America will have to navigate stormy waters overseas in the coming year. (Photo: Hai Thinh)
Jan 2, 2024 by David Silverberg
This year, American politics will not be happening in a vacuum; they will be profoundly affected by events and actors overseas.
Of course, American elections never really occur in isolation; they’re always impacted by the rest of the world. However, since the end of the Soviet Union in 1991 there has rarely been a more volatile, dangerous and, indeed, explosive international situation. This is an election that will truly determine the fate of the world.
This year Americans will feel foreign influences at home like never before, whether they’re aware of them or not, even in a place as obscure and far from centers of power as Southwest Florida.
What are Americans likely to experience from abroad as the year proceeds to its political climax on Election Day, Nov. 5?
The arsenal of democracy
President Franklin Roosevelt gives his “Arsenal of Democracy” address.
On Dec. 29, 1940, President Franklin Roosevelt gave a radio speech to the American people. “This is not a fireside chat on war,” he said at the outset. “It is a talk on national security.”
He reviewed the threat to the world of Nazi and Fascist conquest. He argued that the United States must support Britain’s resistance to Adolf Hitler and that Americans could not be complacent behind two great oceans.
Toward the end of the talk he said, “We must be the great arsenal of democracy. For us this is an emergency as serious as war itself. We must apply ourselves to our task with the same resolution, the same sense of urgency, the same spirit of patriotism and sacrifice as we would show were we at war.”
Today the exact same speech could be given with the same emphasis, just substituting “Russia” for “Germany,” “Putin” for “Hitler” and “terrorism” for “Fascism.”
There are other similarities to today and Roosevelt noted them in a paragraph in his speech, which deserves full quotation:
“Let us no longer blind ourselves to the undeniable fact that the evil forces which have crushed and undermined and corrupted so many others are already within our own gates. Your government knows much about them and every day is ferreting them out. Their secret emissaries are active in our own and in neighboring countries. They seek to stir up suspicion and dissension, to cause internal strife. They try to turn capital against labor, and vice versa. They try to reawaken long slumbering racial and religious enmities which should have no place in this country. They are active in every group that promotes intolerance. They exploit for their own ends our own natural abhorrence of war. These trouble-breeders have but one purpose. It is to divide our people, to divide them into hostile groups and to destroy our unity and shatter our will to defend ourselves.”
Now, as then, these “trouble-breeders” are active in America, only now they’re on social media and have own media networks and one broadcast network in particular. They will be extraordinarily active in this critical year.
America remains not only the arsenal of democracy but the fulcrum of world politics, the indispensable nation without which rule-based democracy cannot exist. As such it is the focus of every enemy of democracy and every would-be conqueror who would pull it from its pedestal. Every American’s television, computer, smart phone, printed page and any other form of communication is a target.
However, their efforts are likely to also likely to be “kinetic,” including terrorism, sabotage and physical violence.
The war fronts
The course of the year and the future is being shaped by war, which is the most uncertain of all human endeavors. America’s tomorrow is being forged on distant battlefields today.
The war in Ukraine will determine whether the United States remains a superpower, whether the Ukrainian people remain independent and democratic, and whether NATO and the West remain strong. Alternatively, if America, Ukraine and the West fail, a despotic Russia will rebuild an empire of fear and oppression, spread it to Europe and reduce the United States to a vassal.
As the year dawns, neither side can retreat. For Ukraine the struggle is an existential one: if Ukraine loses it ceases to exist. The same is true for Russian President Vladimir Putin: if Russia loses he ceases to exist. As a result there’s no end in sight right now and the war seems set to continue in its current state for at least another year.
Putin is 71 years old. If he dies or is killed during the course of the year the entire equation will change. There were strong rumors in October that he suffered a heart attack. However, he reappeared in public. As long as he is alive the course of Russian policy and warmaking will likely remain as it has since the invasion a year and ten months ago. His opponent, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, 45, has to stay alive too—but the Ukrainian war effort is less dependent on the will of a single man.
The war in Gaza will determine whether the United States remains a vital participant in the future of the Middle East, whether Israel and its neighbors will ever achieve peace, whether the people of Gaza will survive, whether Iran and its allies will dominate the region and whether the United States can sustain a two-front defense of the West and the democracies.
In its first phase Hamas won its war. Its Oct. 7 attack achieved strategic surprise, punctured the image of Israeli dominance and invulnerability and especially humiliated the vaunted Mossad intelligence agency. It ended moves toward Israeli normalization with Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Arab states. It forced Israel to deal with Hamas as a government in order to negotiate for captured hostages. It stirred up global antipathy to Israel and intensified worldwide anti-Semitism. It also delivered a personal blow to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose entire life was built on fighting terrorism.
For Russia and Iran, it opened a new front against the United States and distracted world attention away from Putin’s aggression. It put the United States on the defensive in justifying the overwhelming Israeli response. It forced choices in American military production capabilities, diverting them away from Ukraine. Despite the atrocities committed by its fighters (warning: this video is extremely graphic), Hamas successfully prompted an overwhelming and often indiscriminate Israeli response, costing it international support and leading to condemnation.
All Hamas has to do in the year ahead to win its war is simply survive since Netanyahu set the Israeli war goal as destroying it. Israel seems unlikely to achieve its goal before the year is out.
But Netanyahu is one of the most extraordinarily stubborn and determined human beings on his planet. He is absolutely focused on destroying Hamas to the exclusion of all other considerations. If all other factors remain the same he will continue Israel’s current course no matter how long it takes or what it costs in blood, treasure, or prestige.
That will mean more protests, more isolation of the United States and Israel and more casualties and hardship for civilian Gazans at the hands of both Hamas and Israel. It will mean more mobilization for the enemies of the US and Israel and intensified attacks and challenges on widely disparate and diverse battlefields on land, at sea and in the air. The Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea are just the start.
It may also mean that yet another front opens or a third major war suddenly breaks out somewhere during the year.
For everyday Americans it will mean something else as well: the increased likelihood of terrorism.
“Blinking red lights everywhere”
FBI Director Christopher Wray testifies before the Senate Judiciary Committee on Dec. 5, 2023. (Image: CSPAN)
On Dec. 5, Christopher Wray, director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), testified before the Senate Judiciary Committee. He was asked if he saw the kind of “blinking red lights” that were going off before the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.
“What I would say that is unique about the environment that we’re in right now in my career is that while there may have been times over the years where individual threats could have been higher here or there than where they may be right now, I’ve never seen a time where all the threats or so many of the threats are all elevated, all at exactly the same time,” answered Wray. “I see blinking red lights everywhere.”
Following the Hamas attack on Israel, said Wray, a “veritable rogue’s gallery of foreign terrorists” called for attacks on the United States and “the threat level has gone to a whole other level since Oct. 7.”
Sure enough, on Dec. 14, police in Denmark, Holland and Germany announced they had foiled a Hamas terror plot in their countries.
This is only the beginning. Given the tensions, stakes and desperation in so many theaters there will undoubtedly be terror and mass casualty events in the United States this year, some of them severe. What’s more, the intensity, stress and threats—and likely, number of events—will escalate as Election Day draws closer. There may be efforts to stop voting or scare people away from polling places.
The organized terror plots by groups from abroad such as Hamas or countries like Iran can often be foiled by good intelligence and detective work. But there is a significant domestic terror threat as well that simply cannot be anticipated. Some lone shooters, random crazies and violent extremists will get through.
There’s no solution to this at street level. Americans will just have to be alert, cautious and aware of their surroundings at all times, especially in large gatherings of any nature. Never has the old adage, “if you see something, say something” been more applicable.
But Americans will also need to show courage and calm and carry on. The saying “freedom isn’t free” is usually used in reference to military sacrifices. This year as Americans carry on their daily lives and fulfil their civic duties, they will have to keep in mind that their rights and freedom come with a cost in vigilance and potential danger but that it’s worth facing.
“Carefully, accurately, surgically”
Yevgeny Prigozhin in uniform from Rostov-on-Don in a June 24, 2023 video he released in the midst of his mutiny.
On Nov. 7, 2022 Yevgeny Prigozhin posted comments on the Russian equivalent of Facebook.
It was the day before the US midterm elections. “We have interfered [in US elections], we are interfering and we will continue to interfere,” he boasted. “Carefully, accurately, surgically and in our own way, as we know how to do. During our pinpoint operations, we will remove both kidneys and the liver at once.”
Prigozhin, known as Putin’s chef and close counselor, was head of the Wagner Group mercenaries. He was widely believed in Western intelligence circles to be mastermind of Russia’s interference in the 2016 election that put Donald Trump in the White House. He oversaw troll farms that flooded American social media with divisive and disruptive messages and promoted Trump’s candidacy. His operatives organized pro-Trump rallies and posed as Trump operatives and spread disinformation. His hackers attempted to penetrate election offices.
Much of this activity took place in Florida, according to the 2019 report issued by retired FBI director Robert Mueller.
Prigozhin had the temerity to threaten Putin when he led a mutiny last June. He got his reward in August when a plane he was riding in crashed in Russia, killing him and his closest associates.
As Russia has interfered in US elections ever since 2016, so it can be expected to attempt to interfere in the 2024 election—and probably already is doing so. Prigozhin will not be at the helm so the style will be different but he may have already been replaced by someone more capable.
With so much at stake, with active combat around the world, all of America’s enemies can be expected to try to determine the outcome of the US election. This will not only take the form of social media interference and disinformation, it will also likely involve direct efforts to skew vote counts and penetrate election offices.
It may also include old-fashioned direct corruption, blackmail and bribery, subverting elected and appointed officials and making covert contributions to specific election campaigns at all levels of government. It will likely include Russian support for Trump’s candidacy, given his admiration for Putin and his antipathy toward Ukraine.
There is no doubt that Russia will be covertly promoting anti-Ukraine sentiment among American voters. Opposition to Ukraine among Republican members of Congress is already playing into Putin’s hands.
“Well done, Republicans! They’re standing firm! That’s good for us,” Olga Skabeeva, a Russian TV personality on state TV said when Republican members of Congress blocked an aid package to Ukraine and Israel just before the December recess.
Dmitry Drobnitsky, a Russian American affairs analyst, added: “The downfall of Ukraine means the downfall of Biden! Two birds with one stone.”
As Americans sort through their social media feeds and information from media of all sorts this year, they should be aware that they are targets of hostile powers pursuing their own agendas. As with the threat of terrorism, watchfulness and awareness will be essential. When it comes to information, especially outrageous, incendiary and extreme “news” items, healthy skepticism, vigilance and verification of sources will be critical to staying in touch with reality.
The border and immigration conundrums
Migrant flows to the US southern border are already at record levels. They will likely skyrocket as the year proceeds.
Why? Because people hoping to reach the United States are very well aware of the American political situation. This year may represent their last, best chance to migrate to the United States and enter in an orderly, legal way. They may be poor and desperate but they’re not stupid.
Also, America’s opponents will want to put as much pressure on the administration as possible, so there may be an element of foreign agitation in promoting northward migration.
Then there are the factors that are driving a northward migration around the world: poverty, war, oppression, fear, and the ravages of climate change. At the same time there are the attractions: hope, freedom, promise and the chance for a better life.
But the surge at the border will no doubt be a major headache and vulnerability for Biden this year. He is constrained in his response by existing law and established procedures, while Trump and the Republicans have no such constraints and don’t have to offer solutions that actually work. They already are and can be expected to exploit the situation to the full.
If Biden wins, US immigration and border policy will continue to function on systematic, legal principles and will likely improve with time and additional resources.
But by contrast, Trump continues denouncing immigrants in purely racial terms as he has done since he began campaigning for president in 2015. “They’re poisoning the blood of our country. That’s what they’ve done,” Trump said of them during a rally in New Hampshire on Dec. 16. His solutions embody hatred, prejudice and rage.
In the notorious Project 2025 plan for governing after his election, Trump supporters envision reshaping government to give Trump unconstrained power. Their ideas include building large concentration camps and conducting mass raids and roundups of undocumented migrants. During Trump’s presidency migrant families were separated and conditions for migrants declined precipitously. Treatment is likely to become even more draconian if he’s re-elected and assumes dictatorial powers. And he would no doubt revive plans to build a massive, ineffective and exorbitantly expensive wall along the US southern border.
All this creates an incentive for migrants to get to the United States in 2024 while they still have a reasonable chance of entering.
That there is stress at the border is undeniable. But the issue has been so politicized and distorted that it’s difficult to get an accurate, objective assessment of the situation.
Trump and Republican politicians know that alarm about migrants polls well and agitates the base. However, they’ve so overhyped the situation that their more extreme allegations are suspect. They’ve charged that the border under the Biden administration is “open,” meaning that there are no controls at all. In fact there is a structure and enforcement mechanism to deal with asylum seekers and attempted crossers both legal and illegal —but it’s under strain.
Govs. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.) and Greg Abbott (R-Texas) in the past year used transports of migrants to places like Martha’s Vineyard and Washington, DC as political stunts to score publicity points while in fact making virtually no difference in coping with migrant flows.
Will these stunts continue in the new year? They may, but there is also the possibility that they’ll die down. With Trump the Republican nominee there’s no reason to seek the kind of publicity that the migrant flights and buses brought to the two men, who were competing for the nomination. Also, with Trump and Republicans wooing Hispanic voters, these kinds of expensive antics may be counterproductive.
Rational analysts of all persuasions have long agreed that what is needed is comprehensive immigration reform. Major bipartisan attempts were made in Congress in 2007 and 2014, both of which were stymied by recalcitrant anti-immigration politicians.
Republicans in the House passed a Secure the Border Act last year, one of their only legislative successes. The bill was a partisan codification of Trumpist border measures and went nowhere in the Senate.
There is virtually no prospect for any real progress being made on immigration or border security in 2024. Congressional Republicans are following an entirely Trumpist playbook, while Trump is advocating a Hitlerian approach to immigration. Whatever solutions Biden proposes or measures he takes will be attacked by Republicans, whose real interest is in maintaining the status quo so that they can keep using the issue to flay the administration.
Another potential reason for Trump to exploit the border situation has been floated by Joyce Vance, an attorney who served as the United States attorney for the Northern District of Alabama during the Obama administration. After examining Trump’s social media postings, Vance concluded: “Trump is preparing to claim the 2024 election was stolen from him when he loses” and will blame the loss on voting by undocumented migrants allegedly allowed into the country by the Biden administration and the Democratic Party.
While there’s no way to know in advance if this will happen, and new immigrants won’t be eligible to vote in this election, it would certainly be in keeping with Trump’s modus operandi of lying and discrediting realities he doesn’t like.
So the prospects for the year ahead are for Trump’s rhetoric on immigrants to keep getting uglier, Republican exploitation of the situation to increase and get more apocalyptic, numbers of migrants and their suffering at the border to keep growing, strains on border security mechanisms to keep expanding and the rewards of finding practical consensus solutions to stay elusive. It’s not a formula for success and until there’s comprehensive immigration reform it’s a situation that will not be solved any time soon.
Meanwhile, in Florida specifically, DeSantis’ anti-immigrant rhetoric from the campaign and the anti-immigrant measures that the legislature passed in the last session will continue to dry up the state’s workforce, cripple its businesses and hurt its economy, resulting in higher prices and lower productivity.
Any kind of rational progress on these issues will have to wait until 2025. If Democrats take both the House and Senate, there may be the start of bipartisan work toward a sensible solution as there was in 2007 and 2014.
And yet, there’s hope
In his 1940 “Arsenal of Democracy” talk, Roosevelt said that he had received many telegrams (anyone remember those?) suggesting what he should discuss on the radio.
He singled out one in particular: “The gist of that telegram was: ‘Please, Mr. President, don’t frighten us by telling us the facts.’” Roosevelt decided to ignore that plea. “Frankly and definitely there is danger ahead -- danger against which we must prepare,” he said. “But we well know that we cannot escape danger, or the fear of danger, by crawling into bed and pulling the covers over our heads.”
It is startling to read the text of that speech now. The challenges of that time were so similar to those of today.
And the solutions that Roosevelt proposed then apply today as well.
“We have no excuse for defeatism,” he said. “We have every good reason for hope—hope for peace, yes, and hope for the defense of our civilization and for the building of a better civilization in the future. I have the profound conviction that the American people are now determined to put forth a mightier effort than they have ever yet made to increase our production of all the implements of defense, to meet the threat to our democratic faith.”
Eighty-four years ago, Americans heeded that call. They backed Britain, put forth the effort, and when war came to them, they won it.
They can do it again.
Despite all the dangers and threats enumerated above—and in particular the domestic danger of a Trump dictatorship—there is another way that events can all play out this year.
In this scenario Americans rally, they become active, they understand what’s at stake and they decide to commit to defending democracy at home and abroad. Their efforts pay off: Trump and Trumpism are crushed decisively in every state and so overwhelmingly that his inevitable lies about a stolen election and accusations of fraud are seen for the desperate delusions they are; the law is upheld; the guilty are punished; Ukraine is supported; Putin is defeated; terrorism stopped; and America returns to civility and constitutionalism.
This is a real, possible outcome.
But, of course, it’s an outcome that people have to want and work to achieve.
The year lies before us. Roosevelt said it so well in closing his speech: “As President of the United States, I call for that national effort. I call for it in the name of this nation which we love and honor and which we are privileged and proud to serve. I call upon our people with absolute confidence that our common cause will greatly succeed.”
The American people did it then and they can do it now.
There can be calm after a storm. (Photo: Author)
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Coming next, Part III – A democracy, if you can keep it: Collier County, Fla., and the war on competence
In case you missed it:
Part I – A democracy, if you can keep it: Anticipating the year ahead in politics in America
Liberty lives in light
© 2024 by David Silverberg