Nov. 6, 2019 by David Silverberg
Early election results in Kentucky and Virginia indicate that Democratic hopes for an upset in Southwest Florida are not misplaced.
In deeply conservative Republican Kentucky, Democratic challenger Andy Beshear unseated Republican Gov. Matt Bevin, a staunch Trumpist for whom the president actively campaigned. This occurred in a state, like Florida, where Republicans hold both chambers of the legislature and both US Senate seats. As of this writing Bevin had not conceded and was citing “irregularities” in the vote.
Democrats swept Virginia’s legislative elections, giving the party complete control of the state government.
In Mississippi, however, Republican Lieutenant Governor Tate Reeves defeated Democratic Attorney General Jim Hood.
Analysis: What this means for SWFL
The tendency in any election is for the winners to generalize the results while losers particularize them.
As in: Democrats will likely claim that the Kentucky and Virginia results show that Trumpism is a losing ideology and Democrats in deeply conservative jurisdictions can win despite Trump’s electoral base and his active campaigning. Republicans will likely claim that the Kentucky results are specific to that state , the result only of Bevin’s personal unpopularity. They will likely also point out that the Mississippi results show that Trump has not lost his touch.
In deeply conservative Southwest Florida, however, the Kentucky results do indicate that Democratic aspirations are not misplaced and that a good candidate, hard work and effective campaigning can bring a Democratic victory.
(More to come as details become available.)