March 14, 2019 by David Silverberg
It seems like a stampede, an avalanche, a tsunami; Trevor Noah calls it “World War D”—it’s the constantly growing number of Democratic candidates who believe they can beat Donald Trump and become the next president of the United States.
As of this writing, 16 Democrats have formally announced their candidacy but as many as 30 or more may enter the race or are potential candidates.
This Sunday, March 17, will mark one year until Florida’s Democratic primary, when Southwest Florida Democrats will be able to make their preferred candidate known.
Of the vast array of candidates—and under normal circumstances this number qualifies as “vast”—one declared candidate and two potential candidates have some connection, however tenuous, to Southwest Florida.
Familiarity can be an important thing, especially if the candidate wins. Just knowing that the Paradise Coast is here and that it has special needs, particularly of an environmental nature, can be an important asset to a region, whether during the campaign or when the party platform is formulated. And if a candidate with that familiarity becomes president, the rewards can be substantial.
Possible candidate Joe Biden
Joe Biden
Former Vice President Joe Biden is not an announced candidate—yet. He keeps teasing at a run and he rates high in the polls at the moment.
Biden’s connection to Southwest Florida is through his brother, James Biden Jr., who bought a vacation home on Keewaydin Island for $2.5 million in 2013. He then sold it for $1.35 million in February 2018.
Joe Biden spent Christmas 2013 on Keewaydin with the family. But that’s as far as his connection goes. He never mingled with the locals or got involved in state or local politics. Indeed, when he was down here he seems never to have left the island for the mainland. But at least he knows there’s a Southwest Florida and that it has nice beaches.
Possible candidate Terry McAuliffe
Terry McAuliffe
A former governor of Virginia and chairman of the Democratic National Committee, Terry McAuliffe, visited Naples on Oct. 25 of last year to boost Democratic candidates and make connections to the Collier County Democratic Party.
McAuliffe is a longtime Democratic activist. He was co-chair of President Bill Clinton’s re-election campaign in 1996 and subsequently chaired Clinton’s inauguration. He chaired the Democratic National Committee from 2001 to 2005 and then chaired Hillary Clinton's 2008 presidential campaign.
He was defeated in his first run for Virginia governor in 2009 but tried again in 2013 and won election. He served as governor from 2014 to 2018 where he attempted healthcare reform and Medicaid expansion (blocked by a Republican legislature), restored voting rights to felons, boosted the economy and ended veteran homelessness. He was elected chair of the National Governors Association in 2016.
As of this writing, McAuliffe has not yet announced his intentions for 2020 but his candidacy remains a possibility. However, he has gotten little to no media attention and despite his record he remains relatively unknown to the public and Democratic voters.
Candidate Elizabeth Warren
Firebrand Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) announced her candidacy on Feb. 9 of this year, but she was laying the groundwork much earlier. During the 2018 congressional campaign Warren oversaw an energetic outreach effort to local campaigns.
In Southwest Florida, Warren endorsed Democratic congressional candidate David Holden in his run for the 19th Congressional District stretching along the coast from Cape Coral to Marco Island.
While exciting to Holden’s campaign workers, Warren’s endorsement was made only days before her Oct. 15 announcement that DNA testing showed her with Native American ancestry. The announcement backfired. She was mocked by Trump and widely condemned, including by the Cherokee Nation. Fearing that the Warren endorsement would prove more of a liability than an asset, the Holden campaign did not extensively publicize it.
Nonetheless, Warren’s involvement in the local congressional campaign provided her with at least a passing familiarity with Southwest Florida and a few contacts.
How Southwest Florida is likely to vote
Will Southwest Florida Democrats favor these candidates or others when the primary arrives next year?
Ironically, a good indicator of local sentiment can be seen in the results of the Democratic gubernatorial primary last year.
While Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum was the surprise winner of the Democratic nod for governor statewide, he didn’t play well in Lee and Collier counties.
In Lee County it was former Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine who led the pack with 39 percent of the Democratic vote, followed by former Representative Gwen Graham with 25 percent. Gillum came in third, with only 21 percent.
Collier County posted nearly identical results, with Levine leading (35 percent), followed by Graham (30 percent) and only then Gillum (19 percent).
Even allowing for differences in personality and race, the results indicate that Southwest Florida Democrats tend to be temperamentally conservative. That is likely to prove the case when the presidential primary comes around. So expect the most conservative Democratic candidates to get Southwest Florida voters’ ballots in 2020.
Some good campaigning might change that equation but the presidential candidates have barely made a dent so far in Florida, according to the Politico article, “For Democrats, 2020 race for Florida cash and talent is ‘wide open,’” by Matt Dixon and Gary Fineout. They write that only Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) have active finance operations in Florida.
Yet all of this may not be terribly significant given the lateness of Florida’s primary on the electoral calendar.
Late to the game
For a populous state that can hold the key to a presidential election, Florida is a latecomer to the presidential primary game.
The first Democratic caucus will take place on Feb. 3, in Iowa. The first primary will be in New Hampshire on Feb. 11. After that will come a caucus in Nevada on Feb. 22 and a primary in South Carolina on Feb. 29.
The first Super Tuesday arrives on March 3 when Alabama, California, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, and Virginia hold primaries.
At this point the number of potential nominees should be considerably narrowed down—but even then Florida doesn’t get a say.
No, the Florida primary comes after Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, and Ohio also hold their primaries.
On March 17, Florida will finally weigh in on the same day as Arizona and Illinois. (Colorado has yet to determine its primary date.)
Is it possible that a contest could be so close by the time of the Florida primary that the Sunshine State could play kingmaker—and that the Paradise Coast could cast the deciding ballot? Yes, but it’s doubtful.
So if any Democrat in Southwest Florida is confused or alarmed by the huge number of Democrats who have declared their candidacies right now, have no fear: by the time you vote you may have only one or two choices and the nominee may already be known.
Let’s hope it’s someone who knows that there’s a Southwest Florida.
Changing the calendar
Iowa and New Hampshire lead the Democratic caucus and primary and calendar and get a disproportionate say in the selection process. Critics have pointed out that these two rural, white states hardly reflect the nation as a whole or the Democratic Party in particular. Indeed, Florida, a must-win state in the general election, will have barely any input in the nomination process given its place in the calendar.
In a fascinating article, “We Re-Ordered The Entire Democratic Primary Calendar To Better Represent The Party’s Voters” on the website FiveThirtyEight.com, author Geoffrey Skelley examines what the order of primaries would be if they were based on the makeup of the Democratic Party.
Spoiler alert: By Skelley’s reckoning, Florida would move up drastically to fourth place. Illinois, New Jersey and New York would hold their primaries first.
That would give Floridians a much bigger say in the final nomination.
Changing the order of primaries is not on the horizon for 2020. But we can dream.